Compounding the danger of a prolonged conflict is the reality of “trapped” spare capacity. While the global market normally relies on spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to buffer against price shocks, Struyven explained that those barrels typically must flow through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global buyers. Consequently, as long as the Strait remains compromised, that spare capacity cannot be physically deployed. Furthermore, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be used as a textbook response to sustained disruptions, the SPR currently holds around 415 million barrels—more than 200 million barrels lower than it was prior to the 2022 energy crisis.
The investigation is further complicated by a series of ransom demands delivered via cryptocurrency. While some notes were deemed hoaxes—including one that led to the arrest of an “impostor” in California—other communications have been treated with significant gravity. Reports indicate one demand reached $6 million in Bitcoin, prompting a GoFundMe to raise the funds.
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