In mature fields, sudden shut-ins cause water coning, where bottom water rushes upward to replace the oil in the reservoir. This leads to irreversible damage to the subsurface rocks and fluids: as the returning water floods the pore space, it causes capillary trapping, snapping off oil droplets and stranding them in the smallest pores of the rock, forever. This oil is not just paused; it is physically locked away from ever being produced through the wellbore. Even when the conflict ends, that production capacity may be gone forever, permanently reducing global supply and raising the long-term floor price of energy.
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